Sunday, November 21, 2010

Economic collapse part one

Edit: This started as one post, but thinking about it, I decided at least 3 maybe 4 will be required to lay out my thoughts regarding this. In the others, I'll review the issues abroad that foreshadow our nation's own path, why I think owning silver and gold is so important, and my thoughts on what I've read regarding solutions. The situation isn't pretty folks and like the saying goes "it's always darkest before it becomes pitch black". I'm a christian and put my faith in God. I am searching for ways to prepare and do what I can to spare my children from what lies ahead.

What collapse am I talking about, the USA's coming collapse? European Union? World wide? There is a lot to be worried about these days. Currency values are extremely volatile (thanks to the fiat money that everyone uses).  Think paper money "backed" by less than full value of something hasn't been tried before? It has, many times. Back in the Roman Empire they tried debasing (in other words using cheaper metals as filler) their coinage a number of times. End result? things got worse. People lowered the value versus the price of items accordingly (inflation). Folks, that was a currency that actually had some kind of monetary value (the value of the metals used).

Now for those of us that grew up with pure fiat money (it has value only because the government says so) this can be a difficult idea to get your head around (Nixon removed the gold backing of the dollar completely in 1972, a far greater offense against the American people than Watergate). You may say "so what? It hasn't affected me any.".  Think again. With no gold backing (or any other kind) that means there is no limitation to what "money" can be printed to add to the money supply. All the piece of paper we call money was ever worth was as an IOU for gold or silver. So what is it worth now that there is no restraint on how much paper the government prints? Well, a few years ago, the one dollar bill you have in your pocket was worth 14% of a 1910 dollar (pre-Federal Reserve) [edit: a recent number I saw was only 3%]. Your probably saying "you've got to be kidding me!!! I can buy plenty with my money!" Can you? Really? Depending on what you use to calculate the value of a dollar (government stats or other) a single dollar's purchasing power has eroded.(and that is just based on government statistics which are misleading at best, not to mention more often than not revised down a few times after issue).

To put it in perspective, I'll give this example (not sure where it was first given, not claiming it as my own).  Back when the USA was on the gold standard, you could buy a good suit of clothes for one once. That holds true even today. Gold is a store of wealth because it always has value. That same ounce of gold now bounces around $1400 dollars. Think about it. Gold is worth 70 times as many dollars as it once was in dollars. You can see the suit example. Production costs have gone down over time for many goods we buy, masking the real drop in the dollars value to some extent. Consider this: in the Great Depression there was a phrase "buddy, can you spare a dime?".  Yes, ten cents, one tenth of a dollar.  Why just a dime? Why not a dollar as is currently requested (or much more) by beggars? Because you could get a sandwich or a cup of coffee for a dime. A small cup of coffee at McDonald's cost a dollar before tax in most places (can't speak for the bigger cities).

Why has the dollar become so worthless (edit: over the last century it lost 97% of its' value)? Think about it.Now that the dollar isn't backed by gold, it has to be backed by something. Sure, I can't just make pieces of paper myself and force others to accept them (illegal by law. The really big crooks hate competition, hence the reason counterfeiting is viewed as such a heinous crime). The government can and does coerce us to do and accept many things, but outside of this country others demand a bit more. As a result, the dollar is tied (by perception at the least) to our productivity as a nation. As American jobs continue to stream overseas or is devalued by illegal immigrants at home, this backing is dropping off. Added to this, the number of those promises of work (promissory notes) is sky-rocketing as the Federal Reserve tries to pump money into the economy at the rate of trillions a year.

Some might say "so what? I have to pay a little more, maybe tighten my belt a little. No big thing."  What happens to your own budget if you go on a spending spree and rack up credit debt? These days, many aren't even going on sprees as their debt grows. What happens with your debt? The bills come due. You think government is different? That our resources as a nation are greater than our individual resources? I'm here to bust that bubble.  1+1 doesn't equal 6. What is happening with our nation is the growth of public debt to the point that the next few generations will be justified in cursing us for placing this burden on them. Because bills always come due.You can put them off for a time, but they are always there and just like personal debt, putting them off just makes them grow larger.Politicians from both parties can spin it any way they want but that is the under lying truth.

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